A chance to learn something

I notice that both parties are pretty confident that their presidential candidate is going to win decisively. This gives us an excellent chance to test, not their normative commitments of course, but their model of the mentality of their fellow Americans. At least one group must be wrong. It is possible that both are succumbing to the same sort of in-group biases, so that one side will be right only accidentally. This will deprive them of a chance to improve their model of the world, but they can console themselves with the presidency.

My advice is the same as always: don’t vote.

3 Responses

  1. You are assuming the margin of votes needed for victory is outside the reasonable confidence interval for either side predicting victory.

  2. In the state where I live, there is an organization that has sent letters to me and my neighbors publishing whether we or not we have voted in past elections. So now my neighbors know that I did not vote in 2016 or 2018.

    It seems like a pretty blatant attempt at shaming/intimidation. For example: “WHAT IF YOUR FRIENDS, YOUR NEIGHBORS, AND YOUR COMMUNITY KNEW WHETHER YOU VOTED?” (All caps in the original).


    “This chart shows the names of people you know and their voting histories. After the November 3rd election, we intend to mail an updated chart. You and your friends, your neighbors, and other people you know will all know who voted and who did not vote.”

    I’m surprised this is legal.

  3. That’s really shocking.

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